A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
